ΰµÂ¹ú¼Êvictor1946ÍøÒ³°æ

·çµç¹â·ü±¾Ç®Ò»Ö±Ï½µ ÖúÁ¦´¢ÄÜÊг¡Éú³¤
2019-08-07

ƾ֤Åí²©ÐÂÄÜÔ´(BNEF)µÄ×îÐÂÕ¹Íû£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬2020Ä꣬£¬£¬ £¬£¬È«Çò´¢ÄܹæÄ£Ô¤¼ÆÎª9GW/17GWh£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÑÇÌ«µØÇøµÄ´¢ÄÜ×°»úÈÝÁ¿½«Õ¼È«Çò×ÜÁ¿µÄ45%×óÓÒ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Å·ÖÞ¡¢Öж«¡¢·ÇÖÞ×°»úÁ¿×ܼƽ«Õ¼29%×óÓÒ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶øÃÀÖÞ´¢ÄÜ×°»úÁ¿Îª26%×óÓÒ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¶øÕâ¸öÊý×Ö½«ÔÚ2040ÄêÔöÌíÖÁ1095GW/2850GWh£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÊµÏÖ122±¶ÔöÌí£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÇÒ½ìʱÀο¿´æ´¢ºÍµçÁ¦ÔËÊ䲿·Ö¶Ôµç³ØµÄ×ÜÐèÇóÔ¤¼Æ½«µÖ´ï4584GWh¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

ÔÚδÀ´20ÄêÄÚ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬122±¶ÔöÌíµÄ´¢ÄÜÔöÌí½«ÐèÒª6620ÒÚÃÀÔªµÄͶ×Ê£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬2040ÄêµÄ´¢ÄÜͶ×ʽ«Áè¼Ý400ÒÚÃÀÔª¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£È«ÇòµçÁ¦ÏµÍ³Ô½À´Ô½Êܵ½µÍ±¾Ç®·çÄܺÍÌ«ÑôÄܵÄÓ°Ï죬£¬£¬ £¬£¬È«Çò´¢ÄÜ×°»úÈÝÁ¿×îÔ罫ÔÚ2025ÄêµÖ´ï100GW£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬µ½2040Ä꽫µÖ´ï942GW£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬²¢½«ÎüÒý1.2ÍòÒÚÃÀÔªµÄͶ×Ê¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

ÓÉÓÚ·çµç¡¢Ì«ÑôÄܺʹ¢ÄÜÊÖÒÕ±¾Ç®µÄ´ó·ùϽµ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬µ½2050ÄêÈ«Çò½üÒ»°ëµÄµçÁ¦½«ÓÉÕâÁ½ÖÖ¿ìËÙÉú³¤µÄ¿ÉÔÙÉúÄÜÔ´¹©Ó¦¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£BNEFÔÚ2019Äê¡¶ÐÂÄÜÔ´Êг¡ºã¾ÃÕ¹Íû¡·(New Energy Outlook 2019£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬NEO)±¨¸æÖÐÌáµ½£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÔÚÈ«ÇòԼĪÈý·ÖÖ®¶þµÄµØÇø£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬·çµç»òÌ«ÑôÄÜÒѾ­ÊÇ×îµÍ¼ÛµÄн¨µçÔ´¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

È«ÇòµçÁ¦ÐèÇóÔ¤¼Æ½«ÔöÌí62%£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬µ¼ÖµçÁ¦×°»ú¹æÄ£ÔÚ2018ÄêÖÁ2050Äê¼äÏÕЩÔöÌíÁ½±¶¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£Õ⽫´øÀ´13.3ÍòÒÚÃÀÔªÐÂͶ×Ê£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÆäÖаüÀ¨5.3ÍòÒÚ·çµçͶ×ʼ°4.2ÍòÒÚ¹â·üͶ×Ê¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£³ýн¨·¢µç×ʲúÍ⣬£¬£¬ £¬£¬8400ÒÚÃÀÔª½«Í¶Ïò´¢ÄÜ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬11.4ÍòÒÚ½«ÓÃÀ´À©½¨µçÍø»ù´¡ÉèÊ©¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

̫ͨ¹ýÎöÊÖÒÕÇ÷ÊÆºÍȼÁϼÛÇ®Ñо¿µçÁ¦ÐÐÒµ×îµÍ±¾Ç®µÄÉú³¤Â·¾¶£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ð§¹ûÏÔʾ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÖÁ2050Ä꣬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ãºµç·¢µçÁ¿ÔÚÈ«ÇòµçÁ¦ÏµÍ³ÖеÄÕ¼±È½«´ÓÏÖÔÚµÄ37%Ͻµµ½12%£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Óë´Ëͬʱ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Ê¯ÓÍ·¢µç½«»ù±¾ÏûÊÅ;·çµçºÍÌ«ÑôÄÜ·¢µçÁ¿µÄÕ¼±È½«´ÓÏÖÔÚµÄ7%ÔöÌíµ½48%;Ë®µç¡¢ÆøµçºÍºËµçµÄÊг¡Õ¼ÓÐÂÊ´óÖÂÎȹ̡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

µçÁ¦ÏµÍ³ºÍ½»Í¨ÔËÊäÒµÕýÔÚ±¬·¢¸ùÌìÐÔµÄתÐÍ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£Ò»Ö±Ï½µµÄ·çÄÜ¡¢Ì«ÑôÄÜºÍµç³Ø±¾Ç®Òâζ×Å£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬µ½2040Ä꣬£¬£¬ £¬£¬·çÄܺ͹â·ü·¢µçÊä³ö½«Õ¼ÌìϵçÁ¦ÐèÇóµÄ½ü40%£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶øÏÖÔÚÖ»Óв»µ½7%¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£Óë´Ëͬʱ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬µ½2040ÄêµÄµç¶¯³ËÓóµ¿ÉÄÜ»áռȫÇò³ËÓóµÊг¡µÄÈý·ÖÖ®Ò»£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¶øÏÖÔÚ²»µ½0.5%£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÕâЩ¶¼½«¸ø´¢Äܹ¤Òµ´øÀ´ÖØ´óµÄÉú³¤¹æÄ£¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

ÏÖÔÚ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬¿ÉÔÙÉúÄÜÔ´ÓÈÆäÊǹâ·ü¼Ó´¢ÄÜ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÒѾ­ÊÇ´¢Äܹ¤Òµ½¨ÉèµÄÖ÷Òª¶¯Á¦¡£¡£¡£¡£¡ £¿£¿£¿£¿£¿£¿£¿ª·¢É̺͵çÍøÖ®¼äеÄÌõÔ¼½á¹¹³ä·ÖÅú×¢£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÐÂʱ´úµÄ¿ÉÔÙÉúÄÜÔ´±ØÐèÊǿɵ÷ÀíµÄ¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£´¢ÄÜÒ»Ñùƽ³£Ó¦ÓÃÓÚÄÜÔ´×ªÒÆ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬Í¨³£ÊÇ´ÓÌ«ÑôÄܺͷçÁ¦·¢µç¹ýʣʱÐèҪʵʱÎüÊÕµçÍøµÄ¶àÓàµçÁ¦£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÔÚ´óÈÝÁ¿µçÁ¦ÏµÍ³Öеִïá¯Á룬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÒÔ¼°ÎªÏ£Íûͨ¹ýÔڵ͵ç¼Ûʱ¶Î¹ºÖõçÁ¦À´½ÚÔ¼¿Í»§ÄÜÔ´Óöȡ£¡£¡£¡£¡£ÆÊÎöÅú×¢£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÔÚÔ½À´Ô½¶àµÄÓ¦ÓÃÖн«Ê¹Óøü×ÔÖÆµÄ´¢ÄÜ×°±¸¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£

Êг¡ÒÔΪ£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬ÐèҪͨ¹ý´¢ÄÜÀ´Æ½ºâµçÁ¦ÏµÍ³Öиü¸ß±ÈÀýµÄ²»Îȹ̵ĿÉÔÙÉúÄÜÔ´·¢µç£¬£¬£¬ £¬£¬´¢Äܽ«³ÉΪн¨·¢µç»òµçÍøÔöÇ¿µÄÒ»ÖÖÊÊÓÃÌæ»»¼Æ»®¡£¡£¡£¡£¡£¶ø¶Ô´¢ÄÜÏà¹Ø×°±¸µÄÐèÇ󣬣¬£¬ £¬£¬½«¸ø¹¤Òµ´øÀ´Ö÷ÒªÉú³¤»ú»á¡£¡£¡£¡£¡££¨ÎÄÕÂȪԴ£ºÖйúÄÜÔ´Íø£©

ÍÆ¼öÐÂÎÅ
ÍøÕ¾µØÍ¼